Tuesday, August 12, 2008

the war is over?

Georgia’s war & the aftermath

Many of us had sleepless nights following the war in south ossetia, fearing it can lead to wars in the whole region. Finally the worst is behind (hope), can breath & assort where we ended up. Below I share my observations, sometimes judgments:

- one should be mentally challenged to think that could attack on south ossetia or Abkhazia & not get russia’s reply accordingly, that Russia would let the two regions to fall to america’s Georgia.
- One should be naïve to believe that the USA or Europe or NATO or any other state/organization would involve in war with Russia for Georgia’s sake.
- Attacking any of the unrecognized republics, the second front would be opened for Georgia without much delays, potential for 3rd & 4th fronts still exists.

Only first 2 statements deny any logic behind georgia’s war startup. Still cannot believe how it could happen?! Ok, sahakashvili is psycho & the diagnosis is not new, but the Georgian nation? What has blinded the folk that the majority supports sahakashvili’s war? What instincts were ruling them on 8th of august to celebrate a wild joy-party when getting the news that tskhinvali is destroyed & taken by Georgian forces? Knowing of thousands of victims among civilian ossetians, who Georgians clame are their co-citizens? & indeed are their brother-nation.. how to explain the thousands of Georgians gathering today in Tbilisi to support sahakashvili & the war? How they believe that after the renewed war, bombings, grads, destroying their houses, killings of civilian population, refreshing the hatred ossetians or Abkhazians will ever want to live in one country with Georgians, I don’t say in a country where Georgians rule.. I have many friends in Georgia, & if I ask those questions to them now, I’m afraid I’ll simply loose them & be turned into their “enemy”. But I hope after the tensions calm down, the life gets settled, our neighbours will ask themselves questions & find the answers. Unless the Georgian folk recognizes the committed crime, the right of other nations for freedom, the impassibleness of marriage through war & of forced integration, the wars with breakaway regions will be restarted every now and then, ASA Georgia regains strength & military potential. & we have already seen that there’ll be many volunteers to supply armaments to Georgia, to provide with money, to train Georgian troops.

I still have difficulties to guess what was georgia’s aim to start the war, what they wanted to achieve, but I can already see the actual results:
- for the foreseeable future Georgia can forget about joining NATO, the NATO states do not want to accept into their club smb so unreliable, unpredictable, instable, impulsive, adventurist (the rest of adjectives that come to mind r not politically correct, skipping). & they don’t want to play in war with Russia either.
- EU acception perspectives are pushed away for uncertain time
- In today’s meeting sahakashvili says smth like “Georgia is the frontline of europe’s fight against Russia”. But did mr still president ask europe if it wants to fight against russia? & what was doing the EU flag in all tv-shows sahakashvili held?! an american flag would be more appropriate..
- Georgia practically has already lost the 2 breakaway regions, with its aggression only showed the whole world that the regions cannot be part of Georgia. Georgians themselves gave winning cards to the opposite sides.
- Tskhinvali is completely destroyed, the inhabitants either became refugees or are killed or wait to be evacuated. Many other spots in the region also suffered severely.
- Georgia’s infrastructure is damaged, the population of the conflict zone line became refugees.
- Apart from the economy, the reputation of the country is damaged in the world.
- There were immense military losses.
- There were human losses both among civilians and soldiers.
- After the conflict the country will face severe internal crisis, government’s change is inevitable.
- The regional communications through Georgia and energy infrastructures are paralyzed, suffer not only Georgia, but also the neighboring countries.
- West’s multimillion investments in Georgia are basically lost.
- The bank system faces a crisis. Etc etc, I guess one can continue the list endless..

From whatever viewpoint I don’t try to look at the situation, there’re only losses for Georgia, why they would need this war?!!! How they could believe will come out as winners from this insane move? or was it a suicide attempt just to get other’s attentions?!

Questions are rather rhetoric, no sense to continue. What is clear, that despite the Europe mediates the return to prewar lines, despite moscow’s agreement to it, the status quo is altered & cannot be returned to the prewar situation. Once unfrozen, it won’t be easy to freeze back the conflicts, it’s no toy to play. This means the talks will be intensified & Georgia will be forced to recognize the separatist regions’ independence.

* & ja, today’s wars are more information wars than real fighting on the frontline. Who has a professional disinformation & propaganda generator “CNN” - has already gone half-way to the victory. from the western media the most adequate turned out to be the german press (i'm almost proud:))

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